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Saint Index© Canada 2008—Top Line Results

Support for ethanol dropping

The popularity of ethanol as an alternative energy source is dropping among Canadians, as 53 percent oppose the development of a local ethanol plant, compared to 45 percent in 2007, an 18 percent increase. 

More interesting, disenchantment with local ethanol plant development grew most dramatically among rural Canadians—from just 36 percent opposed in 2007 to 51 percent opposition in 2008. Opposition also grew among urban (48% in 2007 to 57% this year) and suburban (43% in 2007 to 49% in 2008) residents.

Not In My Back Yard attitude rules

The survey also found that 75 percent of Canadians say their communities are “fine the way they are” or are already overdeveloped (which was the same in 2007), while only 24 percent say they are underdeveloped.

Casinos are the most unwanted local land use
Canadians continue to oppose casino development, as 83 percent of respondents cited opposition (which was the same in 2007).  Similarly, three out of four respondents continue to oppose a nuclear power plant or a landfill. More interesting, opposition to a local Wal-Mart increased 9 percent over the last year, and now stands at 63 percent.

Wind Powers Up
Wind power developments remain the most popular energy projects with Canadians, with 80 percent saying they would support a local wind proposal, compared to 82 percent in 2007. Only 17 percent oppose local wind energy projects, compared to 16 percent in 2007.

Nuclear Power Is Nixed
As noted above, nuclear power still faces strong opposition from three out of four Canadians. Opposition is lowest in Ontario (69 percent), where nuclear power already exists, and highest in Quebec (88 percent). British Columbia is the only province where opposition to a local nuclear project declined, from 78 percent in 2007 to 73 percent in 2008.

Other Alternative Energy Projects
The Saint Index found varying levels of opposition to local energy projects in 2008, including biodiesel (52 percent compared to 51 percent in 2007), incineration/gasification (49 percent compared to 53 percent in 2007) and hydroelectric (32 percent compared to 33 percent in 2007). Interestingly, opposition to natural gas development projects fell from 42 percent in 2007 to 38 percent in 2008.

Reasons Against Real Estate Development
Additionally, the survey found that one-in-six Canadians or a family member have actively opposed a real estate development project (17 percent) in their lifetime. The main reasons cited were to protect green space (24 percent) and to protect against “too much traffic” (14 percent).

Support for Development
Only 13 percent of respondents or a family member has supported a development.  Of those who supported a development, reasons for support include community improvement (33 percent), job creation (20 percent), and a need for housing (11 percent). What kind of developments do people want? A quarter of Canadians say “none,” 15 percent say a recreation facility, 13 percent say single-family housing and nine percent say parks/green space.

NIMBYs and Housing
The NIMBY phenomenon is clearly illustrated when it comes to housing, as single-family homes are the most supported type of local development (87 percent), while apartments/condos obtained 64 percent support. But housing is the very type of development targeted by most Canadians who have actively fought a project, the Saint Index reveals.  Housing projects accounted for 32 percent of the projects opposed.

Issues With Development Laws
Over a quarter (26 percent) of Canadians say development laws in Canada are not strict enough, while over half (52 percent) say they are just right. Only 13 percent say they are say too strict.

Governmental Concerns
Canadians are still cynical about the relationships between local officials and developers, as over half (55 percent) say that the relationships make the process unfair, compared to 60 percent in 2007. Over four-fifths (82 percent, compared to 87 percent in 2007) say a candidate’s position on new development and growth is important when they consider for whom to vote.

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Toplines and trends from the 2007 Saint Index^©

• 78 percent of Americans believe there should be no new development in their hometown.
• Opposition is up 5 percent after holding steady at 73 percent the previous two years.
• NIMBYism transcends political party lines.
• American’s explanations for opposing projects aren’t always the real reasons.
• One-quarter of all Americans have opposed a development project, twice as many as have supported one (a rise from one out of five people in 2006).
• Asked what type of new development they’d like to see in their community, one in three Americans said “none,” by far the most popular choice.
• Asked what national retailer they’d most like to see in their community, one in three Americans said ‘None’ or ‘We have everything we need.’
• Seventy percent of Americans believe that the relationship between developers and officials makes the development process unfair.
• Eighty-nine percent of Americans believe a candidate’s position on growth is important at election time.

Power Plants Gain Support

• The number of Americans who support power plant development in their hometown rose dramatically. Thirty-eight percent of American adults support a local power plant project, compared to just 23 percent in 2006 — a 15 percent rise.
• Where power plants and quarries were the second most-opposed land uses a year ago, even Wal-Mart, shopping malls and casinos drew more opposition as local development projects this year.
• 57 percent of American adults still oppose construction of a new power plant in their community, but that is down significantly from last year (74 percent).
• Support and opposition to all types of power plants tracks fairly consistently across all geographic regions of the U.S., with the Midwest the most receptive region to new power plant construction.
• Health and environmental concerns drive opposition to power plant construction.
• Wind farms are by far the most supported type of power plant (76 percent).
• Nuclear power plants generate the most opposition (65 percent).

Winners and Losers

Some development sectors in the 2007 survey encountered LESS opposition than a year earlier:

• Landfill — 76% opposed (down from 87%)
• Quarry — 64% opposed (down from 76%)
• Wal-Mart — 61% opposed (down from 68%)
• Power Plant — 57% opposed (down from 75%)
• Department Store — 52% opposed (down from 55%)
• Home Improvement Center — 50% opposed (down from 56%)
• Biotech research — 41% opposed (down from 57%)

Some sectors remain as equally opposed in 2007 as the prior year:

• Single-family homes — 14% opposed (13% in 2006)
• Large Shopping Center/Mall — 58% opposed (57% in 2006)

Sectors that face EVEN MORE opposition than in the 2006 Saint Index:

• Casino — 76% opposed (up from 67%)
• Apartments/Condos — 44% opposed (up from 34%)
• Hospital — 32% opposed (up from 26%)
• Supermarket — 29% opposed (up from 25%)
• Offices — 43% opposed (up from 40%)

For and Against

• Casinos are now tied with a landfill as the most-opposed type of local real estate project.
• Eighty-three percent of people say they support single-family homes in their community.
• 53 percent of adults who have actively opposed a real estate development project opposed a single- or multi-family residential project.

The Saint Index^© 2007

The Saint Index was originally created by The Saint Consulting Group in conjunction with the University of Massachusetts’ Center for Economic and Civic Opinion. The 2007 survey was performed by The Logit Group between the dates of August 1 and August 10, 2007. One thousand respondents were randomly selected from the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval nationwide.

The Saint Consulting Group began operations in 1983 and today is the global leader in land use political consultancy. Saint has 13 offices around the U.S. and international offices in London and Toronto. As experts in land use politics, Saint Consulting provides political campaign expertise to win complex or controversial planning decisions. Among the property sectors that use its services are: aggregates, food retail, shopping centers, hospitals, landfill, mixed-use developers, housing, and utilities.

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© Copyright 2008, The Saint Consulting Group, Inc.