2009 UK Saint Index - Headline Results

NIMBYism

Has the NIMBYism high water mark been reached?

• NIMBYism static at 85% (2008 - 86%, 2007 - 83%, 2006 - 84%)
• But hardened NIMBYs increasing from 13% in 2007, to 17% in 2008 and to 21% in 2009
• Even 85% opposition across men and women
• Those over 45 years (late baby boomers) still the most anti
• Only marginal difference between socio-economic groupings
• Whilst NIMBYism is widespread, significant disparity between regions

• Politically, once again Tories and Lib Dems lead NIMBYism:
  
  94% - Con
  92% - Lib Dem
  82% - Lab
  
  
• NIMBYism is similar across rural, urban and suburban areas

Recession

Hard hearted public

• The public believe in tough love when it comes to helping the development industry breathe viability back into recession hit schemes
• 51% believe that any planning gain package should not be reduced in order to make a consented scheme viable in the current economic climate
• Public opinion is very divided over whether, with the backdrop of the current recession, the economic advantages of new commercial developments outweigh the negative impact on local communities

Opposition to Development

Active opposition

• 29% have actively opposed applications in their local area in last year
• Big increase on previous years (2008 24%, 2007 16%, 2006 19%)
• The retired, for first time, beat late baby boomers on active opposition
• ABs very active NIMBYs
• South East most active; North East least active
• 40% in rural area, 29% in suburban and 23% in urban areas have actively opposed
• Tories marginally more active than Lib Dems
• Intriguingly, Super Greens and Normally Greens (see definitions on last page) no more active than any other NIMBYs

What tactics do they use to oppose

• 67% have signed a petition
• 46% attended a public or council meeting
• 41% contacted their councillor
• 27% joined an opposition group
• Women favour petitions and attending meetings; men prefer contacting their councillors
• Again, the late baby boomers and retired are most active
• Londoners use petitions more than any other region

What type of projects are most often actively opposed

• Private residential (51%) most campaigned against
• Big increase on 2008 (which was 40%)
• This followed by social housing, new roads and supermarkets
• Interestingly, opposition to new roads has overtaken supermarkets for the first time even though supermarket opposition increased
• Unsurprisingly, private resi campaigned against most by 55-64s, C2s and the rural
• East Midlands stands out as most active region against private resi

Why do they oppose

• The main reasons remain consistent as in previous years:
  
  25% - traffic
  23% - protection of green space/environment
  21% - protecting community character
  17% - proximity to my home
  5% - protecting my property’s value
  
  
• But traffic has come back as the number 1 reason
• Protection of green space/environment slips back to number 2 again

NIMBY Approval Rating

• Overall, support for wind farms is very considerable
• Private housing continues to become less supported year on year
• Social housing support is withering
• New road building is becoming more popular
• Negative sentiment towards supermarkets is receding
• Negativity towards office development is still inexplicably high
• Waste facilities have edged to a less unpopular place
• Casinos, now less newsworthy, are becoming less unpopular
• Power stations, from a low base, have suddenly become more unpopular
• Quarries reached an all time low

Support for Development

Active support

• Support for planning applications remains static at 6%
• This has flat lined for last four years (2008 7%, 2007 7%, 2006 6%)
• Difficult to measure much about support as there is so little of it
• Most often supported project was private housing, followed by social housing, supermarkets and schools
• Most common reasons given for support were community improvement, housing need, improving local economy
  

What development do communities want

18% - private resi
12% - new road
11% - wind farm
10% - supermarket
8% - convenience food store and social housing
4% - school

• Although private housing remains most wanted, social residential has dropped out of sight
• Noticeable jump in support for private resi (2009 - 18%, 2008 - 7%)
• Significant climb for new roads (2009 12%, 2008 2%, 2007 4%, 2006 2%)
• Slight jump in support for supermarkets (2009 10%, 2008 2%, 2007 5%, 2006 3%)

Central Government

3 million new homes by 2020

• 74% believe the Government’s housing targets are unrealistic
• This is a measurable increase on last year (2008 68%)
• Lower socio-economic groups marginally support Government more
• Inevitably, Eastern region, South East and South West most critical
• North East more supportive than any other region, but not by much
• As in 2008, no major opinion difference between urban, suburban and rural areas

Eco-towns

• Eco-towns seen as most ineffective way to tackle the housing crisis
• Most believe that urban extension and infill development far more preferable
• Late baby boomers particularly critical
• West Midlands and London least against them
• South West, Scotland and North East most against
• Tribal politics wins: Labour voters more likely to support eco-towns
• Super Greens marginally more supportive of eco-towns

London airport expansion

• All options (Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Thames estuary) were viewed quite negatively
• That said, much apathy on the issue (46% don’t have an opinion)
• Heathrow is the least favourite location for further airport development amongst the options
• Heathrow is opposed as strongly in Eastern region and the East Midlands as it is in London and South East
• Lib Dems and Tories oppose this slightly more than Labour
• Intriguingly, Boris Johnson’s proposal for a new airport in the Thames estuary is most popular
• Super Greens very negative to all but slightly more against Thames estuary than Heathrow option
• Normally Green go with general public opinion
• The older age groups and men more commonly support the Thames estuary proposal
• Also those in Eastern region as well as Londoners support this as well as Tories, obviously
• Electorally, few constituencies would be affected at the next General Election wherever expansion occurred, perhaps apart from Heathrow where arguably five Labour constituencies would be potentially negatively impacted by the Government’s decision

Infrastructure Planning Commission

• The public seem a little confused as to whether they’re going to like an independent, non-elected, national decision-making body for large infrastructure projects
• 52% believe the decision should be made locally (34% nationally)
• 53% believe the decision should be made by experts rather than politicians (23% by elected politicians)

Community Infrastructure Levy

• In principle, the public prefer the existing S106 system to the proposed CIL established by the Planning Act 2008
• 55% support a tariff system against 65% supporting a case by case negotiation between council and developer

Local Government

Council

• 71% think their council does a below par job on planning
• Dissatisfaction getting worse year on year (2009 71%, 2008 65%, 2007 62%, 2006 59%
• Most critical live in South East, Wales, Yorks/Humber and North West
• Tories most grumpy, Lib Dems least, but not by much
• Super Greens marginally less unhappy than the others

Consultation

• Half of population (49%) think community views are not listened to adequately in the planning process.  Only 25% think that they are
• The older you are, the less content you are.  Late baby boomers most unhappy
• Welsh, Yorks/Humber and South East most discontented
• (Last year’s survey showed people believed 89% of consultation to be virtually worthless)
  

Sector by Sector

Grocery

• Good year for grocers generally
• Convenience food stores, still viewed positively, have climbed back up the NIMBY Approval Rating (2009 12%, 2008 4%)
• Whilst still viewed negatively, supermarkets have also climbed up the NIMBY Approval Rating (2009 -14%, 2008 -26%)
• And there is increased support for supermarket development generally (2009 10%, 2008 2%, 2007 5%, 2006 3%)
• But still only 8% of people see the need for a new convenience food store locally

Supermarket Approval Rating

Competition Commission ruling

• Clear cut support for thrust of the CC’s thinking
• Clear majority in favour of regulation to ensure no one brand can saturate a local area (65% support)
• This support is quite consistent over age groups, social class, region and voting intention

Offices

• Offices development remains the enigma of the UK Saint Index; quite why they are so unpopular remains somewhat of a mystery
• That said, whilst still unpopular, they have climbed up the NIMBY Approval Rating this year, from -30% in 2008 to -17% in 2009
• Those over 55 years particularly dislike them as do those living in Yorks/Humber and the South East
• Tories also stand out as negative towards them

Casinos

• Whilst still widely unloved by the British, since the demise of the super casino debate, casinos are now less newsworthy and hence are becoming slightly less unpopular
• This year they slipped back to 2007 levels of opposition (both -74%) from a high last year of -80%
• We expect them to keep moving in a similar direction in years to come
• That said, their unpopularity is fairly uniformly high across age, voting intention, geography and social class

Residential

• 18% want more private residential in their local community
• This is a noticeable jump in support on last year (2008 7%)
• However, support for social housing is withering, down to 8% from 23% last year
• But private residential is still the most campaigned against development.  51% of those that actively oppose development do so against private housing
• Again, this is a big increase on last year (2008 40%)
• Unsurprisingly, private resi campaigned against most by 55-64s, C2s and the rural
• East Midlands stands out as most active region against private resi

Energy

Energy Approval Rating

Wind energy

• 11% of people want a wind farm in their local area
• Generally, the younger you are the more you want them
• Wind farms score very positively on the NIMBY Approval Rating
• No real difference in support or opposition across all socio-economic groups
• Intriguingly, London least supportive
• Significant divergence in north: North East (more supportive) and North West (less supportive)
• Big variation amongst political tribes: Lib Dems significantly in favour, Tories most sceptical and Labour sit in between
• Whilst rural, urban and suburban communities all have similar levels of support, rural opposition is inevitably more obvious
• Generally, Super Greens only slightly more supportive, which is perhaps surprising.  Normally Green in line with general opinion

Nuclear energy

• Good news for the nuclear industry
• Nuclear is viewed as just another standard form of power generation
• No obvious anti-nuclear sentiment; in fact coal and gas viewed marginally less positively
• Women more against than men
• No discernable difference across age groups
• Opposition slightly falls away as you descend the socio-economic groupings
• Opposition highest in Yorks/Humber and least in the West Midlands, but not by much
• Super Greens’ increased opposition to nuclear is marginal.  Very surprisingly, Super Greens more supportive of coal-fired power stations than nuclear, gas or oil

Aggregates

• Quarries reach a new all time low, for the first time beating casinos and power stations as most hated form of development
• And by a 14% margin!
• The older the age group, the more against quarries people tend to be
• Social class and voting intention has no major bearing on the level of hostility

Waste

• Waste development remains one of the least popular forms of development
• Although their unpopularity has declined slightly from -68% in 2008 to -53% this year
• Intriguingly, the least negative age group is 35-44 whilst the most negative are 45-54, literally side by side
• As ever, the Tories are most against and Labour least against

Green definitions

• Super greens – 10%
• Normally green – 74%
• Lazy greens – 6%
• Never greens – 1%

© Copyright 2009, The Saint Consulting Group, Inc.